제목 : The Non-Linear Dynamics of Climate Variability and Economic Performance in China



저자 : Dai Liuyi, Keunjae Lee



요약
The increasing global acknowledgment of human-induced climate change, as highlighted by various IPCC reports, has spurred a surge in research exploring the intricate dynamics between climate variability and economic performance. Despite considerable advancements, the nuanced impacts of climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on regional economies, particularly within large and climatically diverse countries like China, remain an area of significant academic and policy interest. This study utilizes a comprehensive panel dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2020, comprising 1,333 observations, to examine the effects of climate change on Gross Regional Product (GRP) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Through the polynomial regression and controlling for fixed effects, the research identifies significant non-linear impacts of climate variables on both GRP and TFP.
Key findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and economic output, indicating an optimal temperature level beyond which economic performance declines. Precipitation impacts exhibit regional heterogeneity, with differing implications for economic productivity across provinces. The study further distinguishes the effects on developed versus developing provinces, highlighting how economic status and geographic location mediate climate impacts. Specifically, developed provinces show stronger resilience to climate variations compared to their developing counterparts.
The research contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the complex and non-linear impacts of climate factors on regional economic performance in
China, a significant addition to understanding the macroeconomic consequences of climate variability. The nuanced analysis of the differential impacts across provinces
underscores the need for region-specific climate adaptation and mitigation policies to foster sustainable economic growth in the face of ongoing climate challenges.